The Battery
Wars

Every electric vehicle, every grid-scale storage system, every drone and every piece of modern military hardware depends on the same underlying technology: the lithium-ion battery. China's dominance of this supply chain — from mine to cathode to cell — is not an accident. It is the result of fifteen years of deliberate, coordinated, patient capital allocation.

India's own domestic Li-ion market size estimates vary meaningfully by research house — Mordor Intelligence puts it at $14.01Bn in 2026 growing to $23.30Bn by 2031 (10.71% CAGR), while other trackers cite a smaller current base closer to $6-7Bn. The wide range itself is informative: this is still an early, fast-moving market where even professional analysts disagree materially on sizing.

From lithium mining to cathode chemistry to cell manufacturing, China holds a commanding position at nearly every link in the battery supply chain.

India's Advanced Chemistry Cell PLI scheme, launched October 2021 with an outlay of ₹18,100 crore to build 50 GWh of domestic cell capacity, shows a genuine and important gap between allocation and actual commissioning.

• Reliance New Energy On-Time — 15 GWh Total Allocation

  The only beneficiary to have commissioned its second-round award (10 GWh) on time, per IEEFA/JMK Research. Combined with 5 GWh from the first round, Reliance holds the largest single allocation and the best execution track record of the three ACC PLI beneficiaries.

• Ola Electric Scaled Back — 5 of 20 GWh by FY29

  The only company to have commissioned anything at all (1.4 GWh at its Krishnagiri plant), but has since scaled back its own commitment to just 5 GWh of its 20 GWh allocation by FY2029 — a material dilution of the scheme's original ambition.

• Rajesh Exports 5 GWh Allocated

  Better known for its jewellery and gold refining business, selected under ACC PLI for battery manufacturing — has completed prototype testing and placed equipment orders, per industry trackers.

• The Governance Irony Neither Exide Nor Amara Raja Qualified

  Among all ACC PLI bidders across both auction rounds, only Exide Industries and Amara Raja had prior battery manufacturing experience — yet neither qualified. The evaluation criteria weighted domestic value addition and proposed capacity over experience, favouring new entrants. Amara Raja has since separately signed a licensing deal with China's Gotion-InoBat-Batteries for LFP technology.

Two chemistry shifts could reshape who controls the next battery cycle — and India has a genuine, if early, stake in one of them.

• CATL's Naxtra Q2 2026 Passenger-Car Deployment

  CATL's sodium-ion brand aims to match lithium energy density while cutting maintenance costs, with wider adoption expected across sectors from 2026 as lithium prices rose sharply. Sodium-ion uses no lithium and no cobalt — but if it scales, it may entrench China's chemistry lead further rather than dilute it.

• Reliance New Energy India's Sodium-Ion Entry

  Commissioning 2 GWh of sodium-ion capacity in 2026 for stationary storage, using acquired Faradion IP — genuinely strategic for India since sodium-ion completely sidesteps the lithium import problem. Expect e-rickshaw, entry two-wheeler and grid-storage applications from 2027 onward.

• Solid-State: QuantumScape, Toyota, Samsung SDI 2027-2028 Limited Launch

  Projected energy densities of 400-500+ Wh/kg could enable 500-mile EVs with sub-15-minute charging, and near-zero fire risk with no flammable electrolyte. Limited commercial launches expected 2027-2028, mainstream adoption 2030+.

Three tiers: raw materials, manufacturing, and the next-generation technology bet.

• CATL SZSE: 300750 · MCap ~$160Bn+

  The undisputed king — leads Li-ion, LFP and sodium-ion, with an active solid-state programme. The core long position for the "batteries are foundational" thesis.

  Global share:~35%Revenue FY25E:~$50Bn+
• BYD HKEx: 1211 · MCap ~$100Bn

  World's #1 EV seller and world's #2 battery company. Its NaIon Seagull EV threatens the mass-market EV globally at a ~$10,000 price point.

  China battery share:17.9%
• LG Energy Solution KRX: 373220

  The bet on Western supply chain diversification, deeply embedded in US EV supply chains via IRA-compliant JVs with GM, Honda and Stellantis.

• Reliance New Energy India's Largest ACC PLI Allocation

  15 GWh allocated across two funding rounds, the only beneficiary with a confirmed on-time commissioning track record, and now also India's most advanced sodium-ion entrant.

• Amara Raja Energy & Mobility NSE: ARE&M · Gotion LFP Licence

  India's domestic battery demand story, now with a licensing agreement for Gotion-InoBat LFP technology despite not qualifying for ACC PLI directly.

• Exide Industries NSE: EXIDEIND · Exide Energy Solutions

  India's largest legacy battery maker, transitioning from lead-acid toward lithium-ion via its Exide Energy Solutions subsidiary — despite also not qualifying for ACC PLI.

• Albemarle & Pilbara Minerals Lithium Refiners & Miners

  The upstream commodity plays — deeply cyclical and correlated to lithium spot prices, which rose sharply through early 2026, accelerating sodium-ion momentum industry-wide.

• QuantumScape NYSE: QS · Pre-Revenue, Speculative

  The purest solid-state technology bet. Genuinely differentiated energy density — but a small-size, high-patience position given the 2027-2030 commercialisation timeline.

China won Round 1 decisively. The next three rounds — sodium-ion adoption, solid-state commercialisation, and Western/India supply chain decoupling — are still genuinely contested.